The case for and against Ryan Walters:

Purdue football is bad, really bad. They are at a minimum the worst Big Ten team, with an argument for them being the worst Power 5 team. In all likelihood, there are about 60 teams that would be favored against Purdue, probably more. If you ask a fan, the blame falls squarely on Ryan Walters' shoulders, the head coach. If you listen to rumors, the administration believes Walters needs more time, and while there is pressure to win, the expectation is that Walters will stay. I want to take a deeper look and make the case for both options. At the end, I will give my personal opinion on what I would do, as well as what I think will happen.

Why to Keep Ryan Walters:

As of this writing, Ryan Walters has only coached 22 games. In the grand scheme of coaching, that is nothing. For reference, Jeff Brohm coached 70 games at Purdue (he has already coached two more games at Louisville than Walters has coached at Purdue). Hazell got almost double the amount of games before he was fired mid-season. It’s early in Walters’ career, and in this era of college football, it is hard to win early in your career.

While you may look at Coach Allen at Indiana as a counterpoint to what I just mentioned, going from head coach to head coach allows you to bring players and staff with you more easily than going from coordinator to head coach.

As well as it being early in Walters’ career, he has had a lot to overcome. Purdue had the 14th hardest schedule in Walters’ first season and the 3rd hardest schedule this season. Going into his first season, Walters lost 22 players to the portal, with an additional chunk of players graduating or leaving for the draft, including his top 2 quarterbacks, top 3 receivers, 2 backup running backs, both tight ends, 3 offensive linemen, and a handful of defensive players, including his top defensive back and top linebacker. The 2023 recruiting class was severely hampered by Brohm leaving late and was ranked in the 70s. All of this to say, Walters did not inherit a stacked roster ready to win, and was still able to pull out four wins. It’s hard to say that Walters’ first season was a disappointment, as betting markets put Purdue’s 2023 win total at 4.5, with plus money on the over.

In Walters’ first offseason, he was able to bring in the 27th highest recruiting class. That is the second-highest recruiting class Purdue has had in the last 10 years. Brohm was only able to bring in a 25th ranked class, thanks to George Karlaftis anchoring it, otherwise Walters would have had the highest-ranked class.

While this season is a step back, Purdue has had no help. Injuries plagued the early season, as well as offensive instability. Graham Harrell being fired and Hudson Card getting injured didn’t allow any continuity on offense. I know I mentioned this was the 3rd hardest schedule in the country, but I want to highlight just how hard it is. Purdue will play 7 teams that were ranked, as well as 4 of the top 5 teams. 4 of these 7 ranked games will be on the road as well. It is a herculean feat to win one ranked game, let alone 7.

I’ve highlighted the on-field reasons why Walters shouldn’t be fired; here are a few non-football reasons. The first and most obvious reason is that it is expensive. Figures range between $9 and $15 million as a payout for the coaching staff. With the recent ruling of revenue sharing starting next season, having a $15 million debt could compound the issues and keep the football program behind. Unlike most schools, Purdue is a basketball school. The focus is and always will be on the basketball program. Bobinski, the AD, has been very vocal about uplifting all athletics and becoming a competent football program. However, it may be hard to convince donors and boosters to give an additional $10 million for the “little brother” sport.

The final reason is that we, as Purdue fans, have to recognize what we are. We are a mid-tier Power 5 program. We are lucky that the Big Ten is the powerhouse that it has become, because in the last 15 years, Purdue has not contributed to its football success. A good hypothetical I like to use is to picture a prime Nick Saban, with every job in the country open, and contract being equal, where would he choose to go? In this hypothetical, I think Purdue would be at the high end in the 50-40 range and the low end in the 80-70 range, depending on how much you value being in the Big Ten. Zooming in specifically at the Big Ten, the only schools you can say for sure are below us would be Rutgers and Indiana. I could see an argument for Maryland and Northwestern, but either way, we are somewhere between the 16th and 13th best job in the Big Ten alone. Chasing off a coach before at least three seasons, which is the rule of thumb needed, is a bad look for a program that is not highly thought of. The “fire Walters” rumors started trickling in around week 4 or 5? Firing a coach before 25 games coached in the middle of a season is disrespectful, and will do no favors for the future of the program.

Why to Fire Ryan Walters:

When Jeff Brohm left Purdue, he left on top. Purdue had won the Big Ten West and made the Big Ten Championship game, which Purdue had never been to before (the championship game was not created until 2011). There was a lot of concern that after Brohm left, Purdue would be irrelevant again, but Bobinski, the AD, made clear that his expectations were to continue on the path Brohm left and hire a coach to elevate the program to the next level. Ryan Walters was hired to keep Purdue competitive, to make sure they were not a bottom-of-the-Big Ten team. I don’t think anyone truly thought that Purdue would be on the same level as Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, or USC, but the thought was that we could rise to the level of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan State and stay competitive late into the season. That has not happened. Under Walters, the wheels of this program have completely fallen off.

Ryan Walters is 5-17 in his 22 games coached, with only 3 of those wins being over Big Ten teams. This season specifically, Purdue has not scored in two games, not scored a touchdown in another game, and scored 10 or fewer points in three games. Add all that up, and Purdue has scored 10 or fewer points in 6 games out of 10. If you look at only FBS opponents, that accounts for two-thirds of all games. That is a supermajority of games. Adding it all up, Purdue has scored 123 points against FBS opponents. The next lowest Big Ten team is UCLA, who has scored almost 190 points—50% more than what Purdue has scored.

One could argue that it isn’t Ryan Walters’ fault, as he is a defensive guy. HE HIRED GRAHAM HARRELL. Graham Harrell came from West Virginia, where in his last season, his offense ranked around 60th. His last season at USC, the offense ranked 66th. His best season as a coordinator was 2020, where in a shortened season, his offense was ranked 32nd. His average offense was in the late 50s, not a number that will compete with the upper tiers of the Big Ten. It was a questionable hire at the time and turned out to be a massive failure, as Walters fired Harrell 5 games into the season. Firing a coordinator is never a good look, especially as recruits are tied to position coaches and coordinators. Purdue saw a string of decommits after the Harrell firing.

The Harrell firing would be okay if there was a plan in place; however, Ryan Walters proved to be incompetent after the firing. There was a lot of confusion about who would be the one to call plays, and it started with Jason Simmons, the interim OC. Simmons had never called plays at the collegiate level, and I have seen no evidence that he has called plays at any level. That alone is embarrassing for a Big Ten program, but it gets worse as one week later, Walters took over playcalling himself. Having three different play callers in as many weeks is not only embarrassing, it’s also dysfunctional. A good head coach would have a minimum of a plan; Walters has changed his mind at every opportunity. At the current moment, it is unclear who calls plays, but it seems like Simmons has taken playcalling back.

The biggest indictment of the offense is the lack of philosophy. My example is Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions. His philosophy is aggression. It bleeds into everything the Lions do, and you know that they will stick to it. The Lions have lost as a result of going for it instead of taking the points, but they have also won because of it. They have a philosophy and they stick to it. Purdue does not. Against Illinois and Northwestern, the best offensive games of the season, Purdue was aggressive. Walters decided to go for it in overtime to win the game and lost, but he stuck to his guns and tried. While winning that game would have changed Purdue’s season and the whole vibe of Walters’ tenure so far, he made the decision and should own it. A couple of weeks later, Purdue was down 14-0 in the first quarter against Penn State, and Walters decided to kick a field goal from 30 yards out when they were already in the red zone. It was an embarrassing move and shows that Walters may lack leadership.

Another area Walters has struggled in is recruiting. Walters’ first class was ranked 27th, which was a solid first step, but his current class is ranked 81st—Purdue’s lowest-ranked class in the last 10 years. This is alarming, as recruiting is the lifeblood of a program, and if Walters can’t recruit, Purdue’s ceiling will continue to be very low.

My Prediction:

If I were in charge, I would fire Ryan Walters at the end of this season. Purdue needs to be competitive in the Big Ten, and Walters has shown little ability to do that. His offensive and defensive struggles, combined with his lack of a clear vision and poor recruiting, mean the program is stagnating.

What I think will happen is that Walters will get at least one more year. Bobinski may give him time to turn things around, especially considering the lack of a clear alternative at the moment and the potential of his recruiting class. But if Walters does not show improvement next season, it’s hard to see him staying beyond 2025